Remember when Trump’s tariffs had the whisky world sweating? Well, it looks like China’s been taking notes. Just like Trump used tariffs as his favorite bargaining chip, China is now playing the same game – and Scotch whisky might end up caught in the crossfire.
This time around, China is sending a crystal-clear message to the EU over its electric car tariffs by hitting where it hurts: luxury drinks. They’ve already slapped eye-watering tariffs of up to 40% on European brandy – bad news for brands like Hennessy and Rémy Martin (AP News). Now, whisky could be next in line.
We’ve seen this movie before. Back in 2019, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Scotch whisky as part of a dispute over aircraft subsidies. The result? A £500 million hit to the industry in lost exports (Scotch Whisky Association). Now, just as the Scotch industry has recovered from that blow, China’s new tariff policies could put them right back in the firing line.
Starting January 2025, China is revamping its entire spirits tariff system. While the focus has been on brandy so far, the tariff list is expanding to include whisky and vermouth (BottleRaiders). For Scotch producers who have relied on China’s growing thirst for premium spirits, this is a potential market squeeze just as things were looking up.
The Scotch Whisky Association, which must feel like it’s permanently in crisis mode these days, is watching closely. After all, China has been a booming market for whisky, with an emerging middle class developing a taste for high-quality drams. A sudden tariff hike could either drive up prices for consumers or push drinkers toward other spirits, disrupting years of market growth.
What makes this particularly interesting is that Scotch whisky keeps ending up as a political bargaining chip. Whether it’s Trump, China, or the EU, major powers have realised that targeting luxury goods is a powerful diplomatic weapon. Scotch, with its premium reputation and global appeal, seems to be an easy target.
For whisky lovers in China, this could mean higher prices or fewer options. For producers, it’s yet another reminder that in today’s global market, you’re never just selling whisky – you’re also navigating international politics, one dram at a time.
